I'm Just Sayin'...
By Matthew Scott

Ten surprises in 10 races
Tuesday, May 5th, 2008

Ten races into the 2008 Sprint Cup season, here are the people, events, occurrences, etc. that may have come as a bit of a surprise. Note, these are not necessarily the biggest surprises of the season to date, just some things that made me go 'Hmmmmm...'

Rise of the Toyotas: Okay, we knew the Toyotas would be better simply by having an association with Joe Gibbs Racing, but did anyone really expect NASCAR's newest manufacturer to be this good this soon? When Toyota entered the Cup series last year, a common refrain was that they'd be contending for race wins by the end of 2008. If winning three of the season's first ten races while placing three drivers in the top 10 of the point standings, including the leader, is contending, I shudder to think what a beast they're going to be by the time Homestead rolls around.

The Shrub Breaks Out: Kyle Busch has caught some flak in the past for wearing rather large sunglasses. Turns out, he needs those extra large shades because the future is mega-bright. After being kicked to the curb at Hendrick in favor of Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Busch entered the '08 season with a new team, Joe Gibbs Racing, and one major chip on his shoulder. He has used both to maximum advantage. He delivered Toyota their first Sprint Cup win at Atlanta, currently sits atop the Sprint Cup driver standings, and shows no signs of slowing down... not that he ever has. If he can survive, literally, the wrath of Junior Nation, we could be witnessing the birth of a multiple-Cup champion. And he just celebrated his 23rd birthday, so I hope Kyle has a large supply of those oversized shades.

Two years and counting: It had the makings of the often-discussed, never-proven "Nascar Call." Dale Earnhardt, Jr., mired in a 71-race winless drought, returns to Victory Lane at the site of his last triumph. In prime time, no less. But alas, it was not to be, so the streak continues. In his first season with Hendrick Motorsports, Earnhardt, Jr. sits third in the points race (highest among his HMS compadres, by the way), and has seven top 10 finishes (tied for most in the series). So, to call his debut season at HMS a disappointment would be unfair. But since Darrell Waltrip basically guaranteed a win at Daytona, it is a something of a surprise Junior has not yet visited Victory Lane, isn't it? If you heard Junior's post-race interview Saturday night at Richmond, you could hear the pain and frustration in his voice, and that kind of hurt tends to keep a racecar driver focused. Something tells me we'll be seeing Junior doing some burnouts very, very soon.

Stalled on the Drive for Five: Even though Jimmie Johnson won the Chase, and thus, the Cup championship last year, it was Jeff Gordon who had the dominant season. In fact, it was one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. Consider, in 36 races, Gordo won six times, finished in the top five 21 times, and in the top 10 30 times. Heck, in the Chase, he had an average finish of 5.1 (Johnson had a 5.0 average finish), and he was among the best, if not the best, with the machine previously known as the COT. So how is this guy not only winless in '08, but currently out of the Chase, albeit by a mere 6 points? Pretty simple, really. Circumstances and bad luck. Mechanical problems here, a crash there... it all adds up to a pretty big headache through the first ten for Big Daddy. But Saturday night at Richmond, the 24 gang started at the back, lost a lap, then improved their car and their position throughout the night, resulting in a 9th-place finish. Those are signs that point to a possible revival of the aforementioned Drive for Five.

Has Anybody Seen Matt Kenseth: In past years, a race would be run, you'd check the standings, and Matt Kenseth would have a top 5 or top 10 finish, and you didn't even know he was there. Same thing this year, but this time, it's because he's really not there. Ten races in, and the '03 Cup champion has just four top 10 finishes. That's not horrible. What's horrible is that, in those same ten races, he has five finishes of 30th or worse, including a stellar 38th, 41st, 38th in the last three. It's that stretch that has one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup series sitting 22nd in points, 204 out of 12th. It's a long, uphill climb if Kenseth hopes to maintain his standing as one of only two drivers (Johnson) to qualify for every Chase for the Championship.

That number 2... is that how many laps he's behind?: Kurt Busch used a magnificent last lap charge to give Penske Racing a 1-2 finish at the season-opening Daytona 500. Since that last lap charge, Busch has seemingly spent the rest of the season trying to get back on the lead lap. He has completed just 94% of laps run this season, good enough for 28th in the Cup series, and has had a disastrous last five races, with finishes of 33rd, 23rd, 23rd, 39th, and 42nd. He's 24th in the points chase, and it looks like the only hope for the Busch family to claim another Cup title rests with little brother, Kyle.

... and finally...

The RCR Revival: The Richard Childress Racing stable currently owns the 2nd, 4th, and 5th spots in the overall Cup driver standings, courtesy of Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, and Kevin Harvick respectively. One major key to their lofty status there is another Cup list where Burton, Bowyer, and Harvick actually rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd: Laps completed. You gotta be in it to win it, and the RCR boys are almost always "in it" at the end. It isn't where you start, it's where you finish. To wit, check out the average starting/finishing position for the RCR triplets: Burton – 26.0 / 8.0, Bowyer – 20.0 / 11/0, Harvick – 16.0 / 8.0. In a sport dominated by speed, it's often slow and steady that wins the race... and it just might win a Sprint Cup championship, too.

For now.

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