I'm Just Sayin'...
By Matthew Scott

When all else fails, make a list
Tuesday, April 8th, 2008

Seven races into a 26-race "regular season," should be enough data to make some relatively intelligent guesses as to who is a contender, who is a pretender, and who might want to get a head start on updating that resume. But since there are no relatively intelligent guessers here, I will instead present you with the following:

Three who have the look of a contender:

Carl Edwards. In a word…duh. Three wins in seven races, probably would have been four if not for some mechanical gremlins at Atlanta. The 99 gang seem to have their act together. The most alarming aspect of Cousin Carl's performance in the early going, at least to the other teams, is that he has been at his best on the mile-and-a-half or two mile tracks. You know, the ones that only make up about ninety percent of the Sprint Cup schedule. Of course, the season has not been free of controversy for Edwards. Following his win at Las Vegas, he was docked 100 points, and crew chief Bob Osborne was suspended after the 99 car failed post-race inspection as a result of an oil reservoir lid that was determined to be missing. Nevertheless, Carl has served notice to the rest of the garage that the 99 is here to stay.

Kyle Busch. The kid is fast. Always has been. But the attitude was a turn-off to many, and, some believe, a detriment to Busch himself. But you know what one of the most effective ways to motivate a talented yet difficult person is? Put a chip on their shoulder and give them something to prove. Being replaced at Hendrick by Dale Earnhardt, Jr. , and switching to a JGR Toyota put the chip in place, and Busch has certainly proven himself since. No matter what he's driven this season, be it an NCTS truck, a Nationwide car, or his #18 Sprint Cup Toyota, if it has four wheels, the Shrub has put it at the front of the pack. Note to the UPS people: if you ever do "race the truck," I'd put Kyle Busch behind the wheel. But don't let him wear those goofy UPS shorts.

Jeff Burton. If for no other reason than to prove nice guys can finish first, the NASCAR gods need to smile on Jeff Burton. Can it really be possible that just a few years ago, Burton was driving an unsponsored #99 car for Jack Roush? For years, Burton has been the most well-spoken, intelligent, insightful voice among Cup drivers. He says what he thinks, and he backs up those thoughts with clearly outlined facts and figures. But forget all that. The dude can drive. He's led a resurgence at Richard Childress Racing that seemed nothing short of impossible just two seasons ago. If he can find a way to get into victory lane a couple of times this season, this could be the year Burton finally hoists the big cup.

Honorable Mention: Kevin Harvick

Three Who Don't:

Kurt Busch. Remember way back when Kurt Busch pushed teammate Ryan Newman to victory in the Daytona 500? What was that, three, four years ago? Sure seems like it. With an average finish of 19th, and only one Top 10 on the season (the aforementioned 2nd at Daytona), the 2004 Cup champion seems to be spending more time trying to stay in position for the Lucky Dog than for race wins. This is not what Kurt had in mind when he moved to Penske at the end of 2005.

Jeff Gordon. Sunday's abysmal showing at Texas may have been the single most baffling aspect to the 2008 Sprint Cup season. For 15 years, Jeff Gordon has paid the bills by being able to drive ill-handling race cars long enough, and through enough changes, so they became less ill-handling and he wound up with a ho-hum top 10. This is not to say Gordon's season has been that bad. It hasn't. In fact, Texas aside, Big Daddy has run about as well as he did last season, but without the finishes to show for it. He had probably the only car to challenge JGR at Daytona (I know Ryan Newman won, but even my three-year-old knows who had their stuff right that day), led the most laps at California, and was in position for a top 3 at Las Vegas before a late-race accident. But it's about finishes, and Gordo's got an average finish of 19.7 this season. Not saying it can't happen this year for the 24, but it's not looking good.

Martin Truex, Jr. Okay, this one isn't the big hitter that Busch and Gordon are. You could even make the argument that Truex was not supposed to be in the championship mix to begin with. But after making the Chase last year, more was expected of Truex than an average finish of 19th, and only 2 laps led.

Three on the Hot Seat:

Jamie McMurray. It took Jamie McMurray two races to win his first Nascar premier series event. It has, to this point, taken him 191 races to get that second win. One has to believe time, if not patience, is running out. With Nascar's mandated move to 4-team maximums coming up, someone is going to be out at Roush-Fenway, and it figures to be either David Ragan or McMurray. Consider their seasons to date:

Jamie Mac might want to be making a few phone calls.

Elliott Sadler. Despite Kasey Kahne's standing in the current Top 10, the decline of Gillette-Evernham Motorsports continues. Sadler's season hasn't been horrific, by any means. He's still 20th in points, and has raced the last few weeks with a very sore back. But Kahne isn't going anywhere, and if the 19 doesn't run a little bit better, Sadler may have to make sure the door doesn't hit that sore back on his way out.

Casey Mears. Another one you root for just so the good guys can win (thousands shriek as a Hendrick driver is considered a "good guy.") With Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. as his teammates, Mears can kind of hid within the HMS stable. But with Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. as his teammates, Mears cannot hide his 26th place standing in the points race. Mears has always been the kid with a load of talent who just needed the right opportunity. He's with the best team in the series…maybe it wasn't the opportunity that was always lacking.

Honorable Mention: All of the open-wheel imports.

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